NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI)
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) is based on a monthly survey of NAHB members designed to take the pulse of the single-family housing market. The survey asks respondents to rate market conditions for the sale of new homes at the present time and in the next six months as well as the traffic of prospective buyers of new homes.
Current Data
- Table 1: NAHB/Wells Fargo National and Regional HMI - November 2023
- Table 2: NAHB/Wells Fargo National HMI - History
- Table 3: NAHB/Wells Fargo National HMI Components - History
- Table 4: NAHB/Wells Fargo Regional HMI - History
- Table 5: NAHB/Wells Fargo Regional HMI - 3-Month Moving Averages - History
- Chart: NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI and Single-Family Housing Starts
Methodology
The NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI is a weighted average of three separate component indices: Present Single-Family Sales, Single-Family Sales for the Next Six Months, and Traffic of Prospective Buyers. Each month, a panel of builders rates the first two on a scale of “good,” “fair” or “poor” and the last on a scale of “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low”. An index is calculated for each series by applying the formula “(good – poor + 100)/2” or, for Traffic, “(high/very high – low/very low + 100)/2”.
Each resulting index is first seasonally adjusted, then weighted to produce the HMI. The weights are .5920 for Present Sales, .1358 for Sales for the Next Six Months, and .2722 for Traffic. The weights were chosen to maximize the correlation with starts through the following six months.
The HMI can range between 0 and 100.
