Podcast: Countdown to Shutdown - Will Congress Act?
On the latest episode of NAHB's podcast, Housing Developments, CEO Jim Tobin and COO Paul Lopez discuss the potential of a government shutdown, the latest economic data, and upcoming events NAHB members don't want to miss.
The question looming in the news is whether or not Congress will meet the Oct. 1 deadline to approve an appropriations bill and avoid a government shutdown. The Senate already blocked plans last week to keep the government funded, including the National Flood Insurance Program, and President Trump canceled meetings this week with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, signaling a potential stalemate.
“I think the Democrats are in a little bit of a bind,” Tobin observed. “Are they really willing to shut the government down? Because Republicans will say, ‘We voted for it.’ And this is really just punting until we get into deeper negotiations in the fall.”
The Federal Reserve also made headlines recently with a decision to cut rates by 25 basis points, with more rate cuts likely by the end of the year. How aggressive the Fed will be remains to be seen.
“We’re still well above the neutral federal funds rate, so even cutting what would amount to 75 basis points by the end of the year ... it seems to me that if we were in a break-glass moment, we'd be below that target rate, and we're still a long way off from that,” Tobin opined.
Builder confidence in the market remains below 50, according the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), but the forward-looking component of the index is more optimistic leading into the final quarter of the year.
“Hopefully that sets us up for a nice spring next year,” Tobin noted.
“You’re right,” Lopez added. “[Builders are] still seeing the demand, and if things keep trending the way they are, there should be some expectation of good news.”
Multifamily developers received some of that good news this past week, with the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) announcing it's reducing the FHA multifamily mortgage insurance premiums (MIPs) for all multifamily programs to 25 basis points, effective Oct. 1.
“This is good across the board. It's predictable. It takes the bias out of things,” Tobin explained. “It lets multifamily builders build.”
NAHB members also have two upcoming events to look forward to:
- NAHB's Fall Leadership Meeting in Denver (Nov. 17-19, 2025)
- 2026 International Builders’ Show in Orlando (Feb. 17-19, 2026)
Registration is open for both events. Sign up today to be a part of key NAHB leadership and policy discussions, and learn and network with the best in the home building industry to stay on the cutting edge.
Listen to Housing Developments on any podcast provider or watch below for more. Check out the podcast archives on YouTube for past episodes.