Watch Now
 
Watch NAHB Meeting of the Members and Leadership Council Meeting in Orlando. Must be logged in to view. View now
 

New Study Reveals Projections of a Slowdown in Household Growth, Housing Demand

Economics
Published

According to a recent study from the Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) of Harvard University, household growth in the coming years is projected to slow significantly, which would have a notable impact on housing demand.

JCHS projections show household growth in the U.S. would slow to 8.6 million (approximately 860,000 per year) between 2025 and 2035, down from 11.2 million in the 2000s and 10.1 million in the 2010s.

If the trend continued, the projections show household growth between 2035-2045 would decline to just 5.1 million, which would be the lowest of any decade in the last 100 years. These projections are based on immigration levels remaining similar to those of the past three decades.

A major implication of the slowing growth would be declining demand for housing construction. Household growth is the largest source of demand for new homes. The projected slowdown would reduce demand for new construction from the current rate of 1.4 million homes to an average of 1.1 million per year between 2025-2035 and 800,000 per year between 2035-2045.

JCHS Projections of Household Growth

Household formations are projected to decline every year between 2025 and 2045
Source: JCHS tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Censuses and JCHS 2024 Household Projections.

However, a key component of housing demand is the formation of households among young adults (aged 25-34). In early 2024, NAHB examined Census data that showed in the post-Covid period, the share of young people living with parents had been declining. As of 2022, that share had fallen to a decade low — a promising trend signaling sustained housing demand in the years to come.

Further NAHB analysis recently examined which areas of the country have the highest and lowest shares of young adults living with their parents. Although the overall shares show a decline, this demographic continues to face myriad housing affordability challenges, particularly elevated home prices and increased costs of living.

Subscribe to NAHBNow

Log in or create account to subscribe to notifications of new posts.

Log in to subscribe

Latest from NAHBNow

Awards | Safety | IBS

Feb 17, 2026

NAHB Recognizes Leaders in Residential Construction Safety

Today the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) named the recipients of the 20th annual NAHB/Builders Mutual Safety Award for Excellence (SAFE) for their commitment to exemplary safety and health programs in the residential construction industry. The 2025 SAFE Awards winners were honored at a ceremony held during the 2026 NAHB International Builders’’Show.

Economics | IBS

Feb 17, 2026

2026 Housing Outlook: Ongoing Challenges, Cautious Optimism and Incremental Gains

The housing market will continue to face several headwinds in 2026, including economic policy uncertainty as well as a softening labor market and ongoing affordability problems. But easing financial conditions led by an anticipated modest reduction in mortgage rates should help to somewhat offset these market challenges and support production and sales, according to economists speaking at the International Builders’ Show in Orlando, Fla. today.

View all

Latest Economic News

Economics

Feb 17, 2026

Builder Sentiment Edges Lower on Affordability Concerns

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell one point to 36 in February, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

Economics

Feb 17, 2026

How Rising Costs Affect Home Affordability

Housing affordability remains a critical issue, with 65% of U.S. households unable to afford a median-priced new home in 2026. When mortgage rates are elevated, even a small increase in home prices can have a big impact on housing affordability.

Economics

Feb 16, 2026

Cost of Credit for Builders & Developers at Its Lowest Since 2022

The cost of credit for residential construction and development declined in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to NAHB’s quarterly survey on Land Acquisition, Development & Construction (AD&C) Financing.