New Study Reveals Projections of a Slowdown in Household Growth, Housing Demand

Economics
Published

According to a recent study from the Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) of Harvard University, household growth in the coming years is projected to slow significantly, which would have a notable impact on housing demand.

JCHS projections show household growth in the U.S. would slow to 8.6 million (approximately 860,000 per year) between 2025 and 2035, down from 11.2 million in the 2000s and 10.1 million in the 2010s.

If the trend continued, the projections show household growth between 2035-2045 would decline to just 5.1 million, which would be the lowest of any decade in the last 100 years. These projections are based on immigration levels remaining similar to those of the past three decades.

A major implication of the slowing growth would be declining demand for housing construction. Household growth is the largest source of demand for new homes. The projected slowdown would reduce demand for new construction from the current rate of 1.4 million homes to an average of 1.1 million per year between 2025-2035 and 800,000 per year between 2035-2045.

JCHS Projections of Household Growth

Household formations are projected to decline every year between 2025 and 2045
Source: JCHS tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Censuses and JCHS 2024 Household Projections.

However, a key component of housing demand is the formation of households among young adults (aged 25-34). In early 2024, NAHB examined Census data that showed in the post-Covid period, the share of young people living with parents had been declining. As of 2022, that share had fallen to a decade low — a promising trend signaling sustained housing demand in the years to come.

Further NAHB analysis recently examined which areas of the country have the highest and lowest shares of young adults living with their parents. Although the overall shares show a decline, this demographic continues to face myriad housing affordability challenges, particularly elevated home prices and increased costs of living.

Subscribe to NAHBNow

Log in or create account to subscribe to notifications of new posts.

Log in to subscribe

Latest from NAHBNow

Economics

Jul 29, 2026

Fed Holds Rates as Inflation and Energy Costs Cloud Outlook

The Federal Reserve opted to keep its key interest rate unchanged on Wednesday, while signaling that additional rate increases remain possible if inflation does not continue to ease.

Fall Leadership Meeting

Jul 29, 2026

Register Now for NAHB’s Fall Leadership Meeting

NAHB committee and council members, delegates to the Leadership Council, members of the Board of Directors, and executive officers should make plans now to attend the Fall Leadership Meeting, Oct. 6-8, in Detroit.

View all

Latest Economic News

Economics

Jul 30, 2026

Top Ten Builder Share Across Largest Housing Markets

An earlier post described how the top ten builders in the country accounted for 43.6% of new single-family closings in 2025. BUILDER magazine has now released additional data on the top ten builders within each of the 50 largest new home markets in the U.S., ranked by single-family permits.

Economics

Jul 29, 2026

Amid Supply-Side Inflation Pressures, The Fed Holds

The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at a target range of 3.5% to 3.75% at the conclusion of its July policy meeting. There were three dissenting votes on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), all of which supported raising the federal funds rate by 25 basis points.

Economics

Jul 28, 2026

How a Home Purchase Boosts Consumer Spending

The housing market has changed greatly since the COVID-19 pandemic, along with consumer spending behaviors. During this period, housing demand surged, home prices appreciated rapidly, inflation increased, supply-chain disruptions happened, and mortgage rates moved from historic lows to elevated levels.