Podcast: Will Congress Flip This November?
On the latest episode of NAHB’s podcast, Housing Developments, Chief Advocacy Officer Ken Wingert joins CEO Jim Tobin and COO Paul Lopez to discuss what to expect ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
What Factors Will Affect the Midterms?
Economic sentiment. Although headline indicators such as inflation and employment are generally steady, high mortgage rates, gasoline and diesel prices, tariffs, and other everyday costs are creating a broadly negative economic mood.
“Nothing feels good,” Tobin observed. “And as we know, it's more a feel than it is what numbers you want to show people.”
Immigration enforcement. NAHB members — particularly in Florida and Texas — report that aggressive enforcement is discouraging workers from reporting to job sites, regardless of status.
“What we hear from members — especially in those two states, but it's been other states — is the enforcement that's happening on the ground is all-encompassing, and in a lot of their opinions, has gone too far,” Wingert noted. “It’s mostly been driven by local law enforcement who have agreements with ICE, but really preventing all of their workers from showing up, regardless of status, because they're just afraid.”
Some Republican candidates have begun urging the administration to moderate enforcement, suggesting the issue is appearing in local polling and constituent feedback.
Will Congress Flip?
Historically, the party in power typically loses seats in midterm elections, and the current political environment appears especially difficult for Republicans. However, redistricting has reduced the number of competitive districts, which could limit the size of a Democratic majority.
“Probably 20 years ago, there was about 100 seats that kind of sat in the middle,” Wingert noted. “We're down to 40 now because of redistricting, so the battlefield, if you will, has shrunk.”
“Remember there's only a three-seat majority for Republicans right now, so it's not a huge lift for Democrats to get there on the House side,” he added. “But then the question becomes, if they get there, how big is the margin that they can have? And then what kind of headaches does that create for the next speaker?”
On the Senate side, it’s more of a coin flip. Democrats need a net gain of four seats, accounting for the vice president’s tie-breaking vote, and the competitive races are concentrated in Republican-leaning or politically mixed states.
“There are a lot of places where that is going to be ground zero,” Wingert shared. “And that also happens to be kind of where I think the economy vibes are the worst because of diesel prices, fertilizer costs for [agriculture], tariff impacts in states like Michigan and Ohio, where they definitely seem to be feeling those ill effects, if you will.”
What to Expect for Housing After the Election
Housing remains a bipartisan priority. Members of both parties are campaigning on the 21st Century ROAD to Housing legislation as evidence they can work across the aisle. Lawmakers are already asking what a “Housing 2.0” agenda might include, suggesting the issue will remain prominent regardless of which party controls Congress.
Two potential items that may get traction in the lame-duck session as well include the Promoting Resilient Buildings Act and permitting reform.
Upcoming Events
NAHB will host a members-only webinar on Nov. 9 from 2-3 p.m. ET to provide insights and key updates from this election cycle. A panel of staff experts from NAHB’s advocacy team will discuss election outcomes at all levels and how they impact policy going forward. Register now. (Login required.)
And there’s still time to take advantage of September deals for the 2027 International Builders’ Show, taking place Feb. 2-4 in Las Vegas. Deals run through Friday, Oct. 9. Register today.
For more predictions, including what could happen in the next 30 days to change current trajectories, check out the full episode above, on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcasts.