Jobs-to-Permits Ratios Highlight Housing Gap

Home building activity did not fully keep pace with demand driven by job gains as strong labor market growth continued to put pressure on the nation's housing supply in 2024.

The U.S. economy added approximately 1.8 million net new jobs in 2024 relative to 2023, while total housing permits issued in 2023 reached 1.51 million units. That resulted in a jobs-to-permits ratio of 1.2, lower than recent data suggest is the norm (1.25-1.5).

Which U.S. metro areas had the highest job-to-total permit ratios?

• Fairbanks-College, AK (18.2 job-to-total permit ratio)
• Morgantown, WV (15.7)
• Battle Creek, MI (8.3)
• Grand Forks, ND-MN (8.1)
• Jefferson City, MO (7.7)
• Peoria, IL (7.6)
• Anchorage, AK (7.4)
• Syracuse, NY (6.8)
• Beckley, WV (6.5)
• Norwich-New London-Williamantic, CT (6.3)

View an interactive map in this Eye on Housing post.

What does a high job-to-total permit ratio mean?

In most cases, this reflects housing markets where residential construction has not kept pace with employment growth. However, because most of these metro areas are relatively small and issue limited numbers of permits, modest job gains can affect the ratio disproportionately.

Which U.S. metro areas had the lowest job-to-total permit ratios?

• Weirton-Steubenville, WV-OH (-51.6 job-to-total permit ratio)
• Wheeling, WV-OH (-23.5)
• Elkhart-Goshen, IN (-14.4)
• Decatur, IL (-8.8)
• Johnstown, PA (-7.8)
• Fond du Lac, WI (-7.5)
• Enid, OK (-5.8)
• Pittsfield, MA (-4.6)
• Victoria, TX (-4.0)
• South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI (-3.8)

What does a low job-to-total permit ratio mean?

These cases reflect markets where housing permitting activity has remained stable despite weak, stagnant or even declining employment growth. Lower ratios suggest less acute housing supply pressures, though they may also reflect higher vacancy rates and weaker underlying economic and population growth.

What is the national jobs-to-single-family permits ratio?

The national ratio is 1.84, meaning nearly two jobs were created for every single-family permit authorized. This increase points to ongoing supply constraints in the owner-occupied housing market where higher construction costs, elevated mortgage rates, labor shortages and limited lot availability have continued to restrain new home production.

Which metro areas had the highest jobs-to-single-family permits ratio?

• Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV (38.3 jobs-to-single-family permit ratio)
• Fairbanks-College, AK (29.7)
• New Haven, CT (15.7)
• New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ (13.6)
• Helena, MT (13.4)
• Flagstaff, AZ (12.2)
• Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT (11.9)
• Grand Forks, ND-MN (10.6)
• Beckley, WV (10.4)
• Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD (10.3)

Which metro areas had the lowest jobs-to-single-family permits ratio? 

• Weirton-Steubenville, WV-OH (-58.9 jobs-to-single-family permit ratio)
• Wheeling, WV-OH (-28.7)
• Elkhart-Goshen, IN (-19.2)
• Decatur, IL (-17.7)
• Pittsfield, MA (-11.5)
• Victoria, TX (-9.4)
• Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA (-8.8)
• San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA (-8.4)
• Johnstown, PA (-8.3)
• Enid, OK (-5.8)

What is the national jobs-to-multifamily permits ratio?

The national ratio is 2.61, meaning about 2.6 new jobs were created for every multifamily unit approved. Despite this ratio being higher than the single-family permits ratio, multifamily construction has played a key role in adding new supply in large, high-demand metro areas.

Which metro areas had the highest jobs-to-multifamily permits ratio?

• Oklahoma City, OK (10.3 jobs-to-multifamily permits ratio)
• Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD (7.7)
• Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV (7.5)
• Kansas City, MO-KS (6.1)
• Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD (5.2)
• Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR (4.9)
• Charleston-North Charleston, SC (4.9)
• Greensboro-High Point, NC (4.7)
• Tulsa, OK (4.6)
• Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA (4.5)

Which metro areas had the lowest jobs-to-multifamily permits ratio?

• San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA (-4.9, jobs-to-multifamily permits ratio)
• San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA (-0.8)
• Asheville, NC (-0.8)
• Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA (-0.5)
• Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA (-0.2)
• Lafayette-West Lafayette, IN (0.0)
• Bremerton-Silverdale-Port Orchard, WA (0.2)
• Tucson, AZ (0.2)
• Winston-Salem, NC (0.2)
• Burlington, NC (0.3)

What did this study on jobs-to-permits ratio reveal?

The challenge of aligning housing production with labor market growth persists. Although the national jobs-to-permits ratio has moved closer to historical norms, there is a significant imbalance across metro areas, particularly in markets where strong employment gains continue to outpace new housing construction.

In the future, continued increases in housing production will be necessary to address the nation's accumulated housing deficit. The gap has narrowed between housing supply and demand. However, it won't be closed until there is a consistent pace of new construction and improved housing housing affordability, and the challenges related to financing costs, labor availability, land development and regulatory barriers are overcome.

Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, NAHB AVP of Forecasting & Analysis, provides more detail in this Eye on Housing post.