Trade Data: State-Level Analysis of Canadian Softwood Lumber

International trade remains a source of volatility across the building materials sector, particularly in the softwood lumber market. Recent adjustments to antidumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) rates, combined with the imposition of Section 232 tariffs, have increased the trade-related cost of Canadian imports. As a result, the average duty rate on Canadian softwood lumber entering the U.S. has tripled, now hovering around 45%. These elevated trade barriers pose additional challenges for home builders who rely on Canadian lumber to meet construction demand.

Canada remains the dominant supplier and a longstanding trade partner in the sector. In 2024, Canadian softwood lumber exports to the U.S. totaled $5.1 billion, accounting for approximately 74% of the total value of softwood lumber imports. But where in the U.S. are these imports headed?

Trade data from the U.S. Census Bureau enables tracking of import destinations at the state level. However, it is important to note a key limitation in the data. The “state of destination” reflects where the importer is located or where the shipment is initially received, not necessarily where the lumber is ultimately used. This means that although trade data can highlight logistical patterns, it does not fully capture the final point of consumption, especially in cases where materials are redistributed across state lines.

Jesse Wade, NAHB director of tax and trade policy, provides more details in this Eye on Housing post.