Podcast: Housing as a Key Election Issue and the War on Canadian Lumber

On the latest episode of NAHB’s podcast, Housing Developments, CEO Jim Tobin and COO Paul Lopez report on the latest election, economic and regulatory news from the road at the Association Management Conference in Salt Lake City.

Data releases for the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) and housing starts were soft last week, with slight declines amid high interest rates and market uncertainty leading up to the election.

“We’re kind of in this weird purgatory period,” Lopez observed.

“That’s a great way to put it,” Tobin said. “It’s like there’s this collective breath holding by buyers out there. Buyers are trying to time the market a little bit. They don’t want to lock in a rate and then find out a week later that they’ve dropped a quarter point.”

The demand remains, though, as home buyers await any updates from the Federal Reserve and any rate cuts it may enact.

As the housing market prepares to ramp up, however, the Biden administration nearly doubled the tariff on Canadian lumber.

“This is the problem when you don’t have a managed trade agreement, like we’ve had,” Tobin explained, as the softwood lumber agreement with Canada expired during the last year of the Obama administration.

The election has also been at the forefront of the news cycle, with Vice President Kamala Harris’ selection of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate and release of an economic plan that included key provisions on housing. Former President Donald Trump has made statements regarding his economic intents as well, with a formal plan still forthcoming.

NAHB Chairman Carl Harris and First Vice Chairman Buddy Hughes are also on the road this week at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago to help keep housing at the forefront of campaigns on both sides of the aisles.

“As we’ve always said, if you want enduring housing policy, it’s best done in a bipartisan fashion,” Tobin noted. 

“We have been working to get housing as a campaign issue in a presidential year, and we’ve achieved that,” he added. “To have the two candidates talking about housing in any capacity is excellent.”

Listen to the full episode below, and subscribe to Housing Development through your favorite podcast provider or watch all the episodes on YouTube.