Fed Chair Powell Warns of Pain During Inflation Fight

Economics
Published

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell adopted a hawkish tone on inflation during his Aug. 26 speech at the central bank’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo. Powell stated that in order to bring down the rate of inflation, the Fed will continue to raise the short-term federal funds rate, which now has a top target rate of 2.5%.

Economic forecasters estimate the Fed will ultimately raise this rate to between 3.5% and 4% by early 2023. If the rate ultimately reaches this range, that would mean a top mortgage rate in this cycle would surpass 6%. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage ticked up to 5.55% last week.

Powell acknowledged that the fight to rein in inflation will cause economic pain, but said it is necessary to help avoid extended distress to the economy.

“While higher interest rates, slower growth and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses,” said Powell. “These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain.”

Indeed, the housing sector is already feeling the negative economic consequences of tightened policy, as a housing downturn is underway.

Additionally, Powell indicated that rates will not come down quickly after reaching their high point. “Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time,” he said. “The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy.”

NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz thinks that after reaching its maximum for this cycle, the federal funds rate will stay at that level for two to four quarters. As a result, the economy will see a rising unemployment rate during that time, per the NAHB economic forecast.

Powell also indicated that as data reveal slowing inflation, the pace of rate hikes will also slow. “At some point, as the stance of monetary policy tightens further, it likely will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases,” he said.

The next move by the Fed will occur on Sept. 21, with forecasters suggesting either a 50 or 75 basis point rate hike. Given the 75-basis point hike in July, a move of 50 will indicate that the slowing of the pace of increases has begun. A change of 75 would reveal that the Fed has not seen enough evidence of declining inflation.

See this analysis by Dietz following the Fed’s last rate hike in late July.

Subscribe to NAHBNow

Log in or create account to subscribe to notifications of new posts.

Log in to subscribe

Latest from NAHBNow

Economics

Oct 08, 2025

How Do Median Square-Foot Prices Differ by Region?

Median square-foot prices for new single-family detached homes started in 2024 grew modestly, according to NAHB’s analysis of the latest Survey of Construction data. See how they differ by region.

Member Benefits | Membership

Oct 07, 2025

Tax Incentives That Multiply the Benefits of NAHB's Vehicle Savings Programs

Combining the benefits of Section 179 tax deductions with the discounts offered through the NAHB Member Savings Program can be a game-changer for business owners.

View all

Latest Economic News

Economics

Oct 07, 2025

Minority-Owned Residential Building Firms Continue to Rise

The share of minority-owned new residential builders and remodelers has more than doubled since the Great Recession, with noticeable gains from 2017 to 2022. Nevertheless, when compared to the overall U.S. population, minority-owned firms continue to be underrepresented within both housing sectors.

Economics

Oct 06, 2025

Shorter Apartment Construction Time in 2024

The average time needed to complete construction of a multifamily building after obtaining authorization edged down in 2024, according to the 2024 Survey of Construction (SOC) from the Census Bureau. On average, it took 19.6 months from permit to completion, about 0.3 months shorter than in 2023.

Economics

Oct 03, 2025

Supply-Side Cost Pressures Drove Housing as Inflation Leader in 2024

Though the rate of inflation peaked in June 2022, consumer prices continued to increase throughout 2023 and 2024 as inflation drove further price growth, according to 2024 CPI review from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.