First-Time Home Buyers Are Taking a Step Back
The share of adults planning to purchase a home within a year fell for a third straight quarter to 13%. The last time fewer American adults intended to buy a home was in the second quarter of 2020 (11%). The decline is evidence that the COVID-induced boost to housing demand is past its peak and is now softening.
Part of this moderation is because first-time home buyers are taking a step back. Their share of prospective buyers has fallen for two consecutive quarters — from 65% in the third quarter of 2021 to 60% in the first quarter of 2022 — to roughly pre-pandemic levels. This decline can be seen in all regions of the United States.
These results can be found in NAHB&rsquos Housing Trends Report — a research product created by the NAHB Economics team with the goal of measuring prospective home buyers' perceptions about the availability and affordability of homes for-sale in their markets.
Rose Quint, NAHB assistant vice president for survey research, provides more information in this Eye on Housing post.
Latest from NAHBNow
Economics | Housing Affordability
Feb 24, 2026
Falling Mortgage Rates Make Homeownership Possible for Millions of HouseholdsThe average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to around 6% last week, the lowest rate borrowers have seen in close to three years. Borrowers will not only enjoy lower monthly payments at that rate, but it also makes homeownership possible for millions more.
Material Costs
Feb 23, 2026
Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump’s Tariffs – But Uncertainty PersistsThe Supreme Court on Feb. 20 ruled that President Trump’s attempts to use emergency powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) was not valid. But Trump still has wide latitude in setting tariff policy and announced a new global tariff of 15%. American consumers and businesses are unsure how any new tariffs will affect them.
Latest Economic News
Economics
Feb 24, 2026
Young Adult Headship Rates in 2024: Cyclical Slip or New Equilibrium?Reversing the post-pandemic rebound, the headship rates among young adults (the share of the population heading their own households) declined in 2024, according to NAHB’s analysis of the American Community Survey (ACS) data.
Economics
Feb 23, 2026
A 25-Basis-Point Decline in the Mortgage Rate Prices-In 1.42 Million HouseholdsHousing affordability remains a critical challenge nationwide, and mortgage rates continue to play a central role in shaping homebuying power. Although rates have declined from the recent peak of about 7.6% in 2023 to around 6.01% as of February 19,2026, they remain elevated relative to typical levels in the 2010s.
Economics
Feb 20, 2026
New Home Sales Close 2025 with Modest GainsNew home sales ended 2025 on a mixed but resilient note, signaling steady underlying demand despite ongoing affordability and supply constraints. The latest data released today (and delayed because of the government shutdown in fall of 2025) indicate that while month-to-month activity shows a small decline, sales remain stronger than a year ago, signaling that buyer interest in newly built homes has improved.