War in Ukraine Adds to Inflation Concerns
NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz recently provided this housing industry overview in the bi-weekly e-newsletter Eye on the Economy.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is generating economic impacts for U.S. markets. In the short run, heightened economic uncertainty has reduced long-term interest rates by about 20 basis points, causing the 10-year Treasury and 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates to fall back.
Looking forward, a drawn-out conflict will increase inflation pressure for energy (particularly oil and natural gas) and food (specifically wheat). Higher oil and gas prices will only exacerbate the already rising costs of building materials in 2022. For example, prices for lumber and OSB have increased 241% and 168%, respectively, since late August. And prices for metals such as aluminum and nickel have already increased because of the conflict.
The Federal Reserve will begin raising the short-term federal funds rate on March 16. NAHB is forecasting a 25 basis-point increase. Although the Fed was considering a 50 basis-point move, the Ukraine war will likely dissuade the central bank from creating any market surprises. We now expect five 25 basis-point increases this year, which (combined with a tightening labor market) will push mortgage rates higher. Indeed, the job market surprised in February with a 678,000 job gain while the unemployment rate fell to 3.8%. Higher rates and increasing home prices will continue to reduce housing affordability in 2022. In fact, new NAHB estimates indicate that for every $1,000 increase in home price, almost 118,000 households are priced out of the market. New home sales dipped in January, likely because of growing affordability concerns. Sales contracts fell 4.5% to an annual rate of 801,000. The January 2022 pace was 19% lower than the pace of sales in January 2021. However, much of that decline was strategic pacing by builders because of ongoing supply-chain issues.
As conditions become increasingly challenging for home buyers, demand will continue to grow for multifamily construction. In fact, the three-month absorption rate for new apartments in the third quarter of 2021 climbed to 75% — the best reading since 2005.
But while suburban and high-rise apartment construction continues to grow, the “missing middle” remains missing. Because of zoning issues and regulatory burdens, 2- to 4-unit multifamily production was flat in 2021 with just 12,000 units started, while the rest of the home building industry was posting strong gains.
Latest from NAHBNow
Sep 17, 2025
Housing Starts Remain Soft Ahead of Fed MeetingOverall housing starts decreased 8.5% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.31 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.
Sep 16, 2025
Tradeswomen Paving Their Own WayNAHB spoke with Professional Women in Building (PWB) members Elyse Adams and Brittney Quinn about their career paths in the trades and how PWB has positively influenced their journeys.
Latest Economic News
Sep 17, 2025
The Fed Cuts and Projects More Easing to ComeAfter a monetary policy pause that began at the start of 2025, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee (FOMC) voted to reduce the short-term federal funds rate by 25 basis points at the conclusion of its September meeting. This move decreased the target federal funds rate to an upper rate of 4.25%.
Sep 17, 2025
Housing Starts Remain Soft Ahead of Fed MeetingChallenging affordability conditions continue to act as headwinds for the housing industry, but the sector could see lower interest rates in the near future with the Federal Reserve expected to cut short-term interest rates this afternoon.
Sep 16, 2025
Builder Confidence Steady but Future Sales Expectations Hit Six-Month HighBuilder sentiment levels remained unchanged in September but lower mortgage rates and expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon cut the federal funds rate led to higher future sale expectations in the coming months.