Most Vulnerable Housing Markets

Economics
Published

Which housing markets are most vulnerable during this downturn brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic? Based on current unemployment trends brought on by the outbreak, an analysis by the American Community Survey (ACS) sheds light on which states are likely to lag when the housing recovery takes hold.

The ACS study suggests that renters and young adults under the age of 34 are likely to face higher prolonged unemployment risks as a result of the coronavirus pandemic hitting the labor market. The labor market risks are also uneven across states, with state economies heavily reliant on leisure, entertainment, retail and personal services being most vulnerable. Although recent job losses because of the coronavirus shutdown are astounding and widespread across industries, the expectations of how fast the return to normalcy will take are quite different for the hardest hit sectors.

Entertainment (including accommodation and restaurant businesses), retail (except grocery and building material), personal services and transportation (air, train, water and sightseeing transportation) are among the hardest hit sectors that are likely to experience lingering elevated levels of unemployment. If this premise is correct, states with economies heavily reliant on leisure, entertainment, retail and personal services are particularly vulnerable. Nearly one-quarter – 23.5% — of the U.S. labor force (including self-employed) were working in these high unemployment risk sectors in 2018.

Although the labor force in most states have similar shares of most vulnerable jobs, the workforce in Nevada, Florida and Hawaii face much higher prolonged unemployment risks. As of 2018, a staggering 39% of Nevada’s labor force was in high unemployment risk industries, including more than 23% in entertainment. Hawaii and Florida had 30% and 28% of their respective workforces in these industries, including 16% and 12% in entertainment.

At the other end of the spectrum are the District of Columbia and states such as North Dakota and Wisconsin, with shares of workforce in high unemployment risk industries below the national average – 17%, 19% and 20%, respectively. Similarly, Virginia, Nebraska, Vermont, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts and Iowa have shares under 21%.

NAHB economist Natalia Siniavskaia provides more analysis in this Eye on Housing blog post.

Subscribe to NAHBNow

Log in or create account to subscribe to notifications of new posts.

Log in to subscribe

Latest from NAHBNow

Remodeling | Publications

Jun 19, 2025

Award-Winning Advice: Surround Yourself With Good People

In the latest edition of Pro Remodeler, 2024 Remodeler of the Year Mike Pressgrove shares advice from his career.

Advocacy | Economics

Jun 18, 2025

Podcast: Mid-Year Update on Economic Indicators and Advocacy Priorities

On the latest episode of NAHB’s podcast, Housing Developments, COO Paul Lopez welcomes NAHB Chief Economist Dr. Robert Dietz and Chief Advocacy Officer Ken Wingert for a mid-year check in on key economic indicators and NAHB policy priorities driving home building for the rest of 2025.

View all

Latest Economic News

Economics

Jun 20, 2025

Single-family Construction Loan Volume Grows

Credit conditions for builders and developers eased in the first quarter of 2025 as the level of outstanding 1-4 family residential construction loans rose for the first time in two years, according to data released by FDIC.

Economics

Jun 18, 2025

The Fed Pause Continues

Reflecting most forecasters’ expectations for the June FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve continued its post-2024 pause for federal funds rate cuts, retaining a target rate of 4.5% to 4.25%.

Economics

Jun 18, 2025

Sharp Drop in Multifamily Production Brings Overall Housing Starts Down

A sharp decline in multifamily production pushed overall housing starts down in May, while single-family output was essentially flat due to economic and tariff uncertainty along with elevated interest rates.