Housing Affordability Down Due to Economic Losses Stemming from COVID-19 Pandemic

Economics
Published

Surging job losses in March stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to a decline in U.S. median income and housing affordability in the first quarter of 2020, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI) released today.

In all, 61.3% of new and existing homes sold between the beginning of January and end of March were affordable to families earning an adjusted U.S. median income of $72,900. This is down from the 63.2% of homes sold in the fourth quarter of 2019 that were affordable to households earning the median income of $75,500.

The Department of Housing and Urban Development’s (HUD) original estimates of median family income for 2020 were developed prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. To account for the pandemic’s effects, the HUD estimates were reduced consistent with NAHB’s economic forecast for 2020. As a result, the 2020 national median income estimates used in the HOI calculations ($72,900) are 7.1% lower than the initial national 2020 estimates ($78,500) from HUD.

“The pandemic has clearly hurt housing affordability by exacerbating existing supply chain problems and slowing home construction during a time of underbuilding,” said NAHB Chairman Dean Mon.

“The affordability decline is tied to the coronavirus outbreak as job losses surged and median income fell due to reduced economic activity,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “However, housing demand started the year strong, interest rates are expected to stay at low levels for the foreseeable future and home prices have held remarkably stable over the past four quarters. As virus mitigation efforts show signs of success, workers will return to their jobs, and housing will help lead the economy to higher ground.”

The HOI shows that the national median home price held steady, edging up from $279,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 to $280,000 in the first quarter. The median home price was $280,000 in the both the second and third quarter of 2019. Meanwhile, average mortgage rates fell by 17 basis points in the first quarter to 3.61% from 3.78% in the fourth quarter.

Most and Least Affordable Markets

Scranton-Wilkes Barre-Hazleton, Pa., was rated the nation’s most affordable major housing market, defined as a metro with a population of at least 500,000. There, 91% of all new and existing homes sold in the first quarter were affordable to families earning the area’s median income of $66,600. Meanwhile, Cumberland-Md.-W.Va. was rated the nation’s most affordable smaller market, with 97.1% of homes sold in the first quarter being affordable to families earning the median income of $57,500.

Rounding out the top five affordable major housing markets in respective order were Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Ind.; Harrisburg-Carlisle, Pa.; Toledo, Ohio; and Albany-Schenectady-Troy, N.Y.

Smaller markets joining Cumberland at the top of the list included Monroe, Mich.; Binghamton, N.Y.; Mansfield, Ohio; and Battle Creek, Mich.

San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, Calif., once again assumed the mantel as the nation’s least affordable major housing market. There, just 8.9% of the homes sold during the first quarter were affordable to families earning the area’s median income of $129,200. Los Angeles-Long-Beach-Glendale, Calif., which fell to No. 2., was the nation’s least affordable market in the fourth quarter.

Other major metros at the bottom of the affordability chart were in California. In descending order, they included Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine; San Diego-Carlsbad; and Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura.

All five least affordable small housing markets were also in the Golden State. At the very bottom of the affordability chart was Salinas, where 15.3% of all new and existing homes sold were affordable to families earning the area’s median income of $75,800.

In descending order, other small markets at the lowest end of the affordability scale included San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles-Arroyo Grande; Merced; Santa Cruz-Watsonville; and Napa. Please visit nahb.org/hoi for tables, historic data and details.

Subscribe to NAHBNow

Log in or create account to subscribe to notifications of new posts.

Log in to subscribe

Latest from NAHBNow

Material Costs

Aug 29, 2025

NAHB's Monthly Update Features Canadian Lumber Duties Talking Points

The update provides the latest messaging framework to help members articulate housing priorities and latest news related to the Canadian lumber imports and builder sentiment.

Advocacy | US Economy

Aug 28, 2025

Podcast: Congressional Priorities and the Trump Economy Heading into Fall

On the latest episode of NAHB podcast Housing Developments, NAHB CEO Jim Tobin and COO Paul Lopez discuss how the rest of the year looks as Congress gets ready to return to Washington next week.

View all

Latest Economic News

Economics

Aug 29, 2025

Multifamily Absorption Rises in the Second Quarter

The percentage of new apartment units that were absorbed within three months after completion rose in the second quarter, according to the Census Bureau’s latest release of the Survey of Market Absorption of New Multifamily Units (SOMA).

Economics

Aug 28, 2025

Mortgage Rates Move Lower, Hitting 10-Month Low

Average mortgage rates in August continued their steady decline and are now at their lowest rate since last November.

Economics

Aug 27, 2025

Wood-Framed Home Share Increased in 2024

Wood framing continues to dominate the U.S. single-family home construction market, according to NAHB analysis of 2024 Census Bureau data.