Economics

NAHB’s Economics team provides in-depth economic analysis of the most significant issues and latest trends driving the housing industry. In addition to national housing market data, this section includes state and local data for the Western region.

* Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate; Arrows indicate the direction from the previous month for starts and sales and year for prices.

NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index: The index, which measures builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes, fell eight points to 69 in May from a reading of 77 in April. Any number over 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz’s analysis: "Housing leads the business cycle and housing is slowing. Lower single-family construction starts and new home sales in May reflect our recent builder surveys showing notably weaker confidence in the single-family market. These indicators are a clear sign of a slowing in the housing market, as rising mortgage rates and building material costs are driving more potential buyers out of the market. And with the Federal Reserve continuing to move aggressively to raise interest rates to combat inflation, NAHB is now anticipating a recession in 2023 due to tighter financial conditions. On a related front, President Biden’s plan to address housing affordability challenges is a welcome development, but the administration needs to focus more on resolving rising lumber and building material prices and supply chain bottlenecks that are raising housing costs far faster than wages.”

Labor and Workforce Data

• Employment by State and Metro Areas: Access the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics about overall employment and construction employees in your state and local metro areas.

• Western Region Workforce Data: Find the construction trades wage data for the 13 states comprising the Western region of the United States.

National Homeownership Rates

The Census Bureau’s Housing Vacancy Survey (CPS/HVS) reported the U.S. homeownership rate at 65.4% in the first quarter of 2022. The homeownership rate among age groups:

• Households under 35: 38.8%
• Households led by 35-44 year olds: 62.3%
• Households led by 45-54 year olds: 69.4%
• Households led by 55-64 year olds: 75%
• Households led by 65 years and over: 78.6%

Learn more in this Eye on Housing blog post.