HousingEconomics.com - FAQ

Q: What is HousingEconomics.com?

Table of Contents
Subscribing to HousingEconomics.com
Housing Market Concepts and Information
NAHB Indexes
Other Housing Related Information
Useful Links


A: HousingEconomics.com is a subscription service providing in depth housing and economic data and forecasts for those who want greater detail than they can find at NAHB's HousingData section of the Web site. It is the online economics information source for America’s Housing Industry, published by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). Available by subscription, HousingEconomics.com provides the latest housing forecasts, market trends, in-depth economic analysis, and archival data relating to the housing industry. The highly anticipated forecasting and analysis are provided by NAHB’s Economics Group. 

  

Q: What do you get with a subscription to HousingEconomics.com?


A: Once you become a subscriber you will have access for a full year to all the data and reports described at the samples page.

We provide both a single-user and a multiple-access subscription depending on your needs. A single user subscription provides access to one user at your organization. If more than one staff member at your company needs access to economic data, the HousingEconomics.com Multiple-License is the best choice. With this license, more than one person can access HousingEconomics.com simultaneously. In addition, it gives you the flexibility to add or remove staff subscribers in response to changes in your business.

If your company requires access to HousingEconomics.com for more than 9 employees or has offices in several locations, NAHB can provide tailored solutions. (Contact Lay Bragg at 202-266-8270 or lbragg@nahb.org.)

Please visit the free samples page for a complete description of our offerings. 

Q: Can I subscribe to HousingEconomics if I am not a member of NAHB?

A: Yes, a subscription to HousingEconomics is available to the general public. The annual subscription is available for purchase regardless of membership status. However, members of NAHB do receive a discount off of the subscription fee when they subscribe to HousingEconomics.com. 

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Q: When I will have access to the reports and data?

 

A: You will have immediate access once you complete the subscription payment process.

 

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Q: Do you have a trial version?

 

A: No, trials are not available. However, we have full samples of all the reports.

 

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Q: Are forecast reports sold separately?

 

A: No, reports or data are not sold separately. All the HousingEconomics reports will be accessible for a year once you subscribe online. You will also receive several forecast updates throughout the year.

 

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Q: How do you produce the state and metro housing starts forecasts?

 

A: The Census Bureau does not estimate starts data for states or metros. NAHB Economics uses Moody’s Ecomomy.Com estimates of historical housing starts for the states, the District of Columbia, and 100 metros based on Census Bureau permits data. These “historical” series serve as a starting point for our state and metro forecasts of housing starts.

 

NAHB has developed forecast models for state and metro housing starts. Key drivers in the model include employment, population, vacancy rates, and housing prices. Our economists also monitor state and local developments that might not be captured in the models but affect residential construction for a particular area.

 

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Q: How often do you update your forecasts?


A: The national forecast is updated each month. The state, metro, and *remodeling forecasts are updated twice a year. The long-term (national), and multifamily forecasts are updated once a year.

 

*The remodeling forecast is currently on hold. The Census Bureau no longer produces the data associated with the report. Our economics team is working on a way to continue to provide this data to our subscribers. We thank you for your patience and understanding.

 

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Q: Do you have a long-term state/metro forecast?


A: No.

 

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Q: Can a subscription be shared with other department members or coworkers?

A: If more than one staff member at your company needs access to economic data, the HousingEconomics Multiple-License is the best choice and YOU SAVE MORE THAN 50% of the retail price.

Please note that NAHB discourages subscribers from sharing their HousingEconomics subscription within their company. Any time that usernames and passwords are shared, there is the potential that private information about the subscriber, such as payment method, can be discovered. Also, our system allows only one user at a time per user ID.

 

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Q: Where do I get help with subscription or other questions?


A: For help with subscriptions to HousingEconomics.com contact Lay Bragg (lbragg@nahb.org or 202-266-8270). For all other questions regarding NAHB, call 800-368-5242, e-mail us at info@nahb.org, or use our Online Contact Form for help.

 

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Q: What does the NAHB do?


A: The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) is a Washington, D.C.-based trade association whose mission is to enhance the climate for housing and the building industry. Chief among NAHB’s goals is providing and expanding opportunities for all consumers to have safe, decent and affordable housing. As “the voice of America’s housing industry,” NAHB helps promote policies that will keep housing a national priority. Since 1942, NAHB has been serving its members, the housing industry, and the public at large.

 

The Economics and Housing Policy Groups provide information, statistics, and analysis to NAHB members, subscribers, and the general public. Subscribers receive detailed statistics and forecasts for the United States, the 50 states, and major metro markets. Subscription information and product samples can be found at HousingEconomics.com.

 

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Q: What doesn't NAHB do?


A:

 

•We do not recommend or rate builders.

•We do not resolve disputes you may have with builders.

 

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Q: Where can I get information about Local Home Builders’ Associations?


A:  You can find Local Home Builders’ Associations at our website. Click on the state you are interested in for listings.

 

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Q: I am a consumer/student and can’t afford a subscription.  What data/forecasts do you make available to the public for free?


A: To see the data and forecasts we make available to the public, go to the Housing Data section of our website.

 

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Q:  I need only one report (number, etc.), can I purchase a single report?


A: No, HousingEconomics.com is not able to sell single reports or numbers. You must purchase the appropriate subscription which will give you a year’s access to the number or report you need.

 

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Q: What is NAHB’s economic outlook for housing?


A: For our latest view on the economy and housing, see our chief economist’s most recent “Eye on the Economy” article.

 

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HOUSING MARKET CONCEPTS & INFORMATION

 

Q: What is a housing start?  What is a building permit? What is the relationship between building permits, housing starts, and housing completions?

 

A: Not all the houses with building permits get started (built), and not all started units get completed, although most do. A start is defined as excavation (ground breaking) for the footings or foundation of a residential structure. For a multifamily structure, all units are counted as started when the structure is started. Get a full description of the relationship between building permits, housing starts, and housing completions.

 

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Q: Where can I find Housing Starts data?

 

A: Housing starts data are produced by the Census Bureau. The Census Bureau releases starts data for the nation and the four census regions (Northeast, South, Midwest, and West), which are available on our website. National housing starts data are reported as single-family (one unit), multifamily (the total of the separately reported 2 to 4 units and 5 or more units), and total starts (single-family plus multifamily starts).

You can also look at monthly permits (annual permits history back to 1981 available to NAHB members and subscribers) for the nation, the four census regions, the nine census divisions, the 50 states plus the District of Columbia, and 200 metros.

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Q: Where do I find state/metro housing starts?

A: The Census Bureau does not collect starts data for states or metros.  

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Q: Where can I get information on Building Permits?

 

A: Building permits for the nation, the four census regions, the nine census divisions, the 50 states plus the District of Columbia, and 200 metros can be found on our website. Additional detail for building permits can be found at the Census Bureau’s New Residential Construction.

 

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Q: I would like to know the number of new housing permits in my state/metro. Where can I find this information?

 

A: The U.S. Census Bureau collects these data. NAHB makes the most recent year-to-date data available to the public for the states, the District of Columbia, and 200 metropolitan statistical areas in the Construction Statistics section of NAHB.org. Executive Level subscribers can find a link to a table showing annual permits history for all the states and 200 metros. Additional detail for building permits (such as metros not listed in our tables and county permit data) can be found at the Census Bureau’s New Residential Construction.

 

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Q: Besides new housing permits, what other information is available from the U.S. Census Bureau?

 

A: Building permits for the nation, the four census regions, the nine census divisions, the 50 states plus the District of Columbia, and 200 metros can be found on our website. Additional detail for building permits can be found at the Census Bureau’s New Residential Construction.

 

The U.S. Census Bureau collects, tabulates, and publishes monthly statistics on Housing Starts, New One-Family Houses Sold, Housing Completions, Manufactured Home Placements, and Dollar Value of Construction Put in Place. In addition they also produce quarterly estimates of the Residential Construction in Selected Metropolitan Areas, Price Index of New One-Family Houses Sold, and Dollars Spent on Residential Improvements and Repairs.  

 

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Q: The U.S. Census Bureau's website is very large. Where can I find residential construction statistics?

 

A: The Census Bureau has several logical starting points depending upon the kind of statistics you are looking for. For residential construction we suggest you bookmark this page as your starting point with the Census Bureau.

 

 

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Q: Why are new home sales consistently lower than single-family housing starts? Does this mean a huge inventory of unsold homes is building up?


A:
No. Houses built for rent, houses built by a general contractor on the owner's land, and owner-built homes are not included in new home sales. Therefore the number of new home sales is consistently lower than total single-family starts or completions. Roughly 20 years ago or so, this represented 40 percent of starts, today the number is closer to 20 percent of starts.

 

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Q: Where can I get house price information?


A: There are numerous measures of housing prices.  One of the most widely cited house price indexes measuring changes in existing home prices is produced by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). The Census Bureau provides a number of housing price indexes. See also the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey.  Enter the local area you are interested in for detailed housing and demographic data.  

 

 

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Q: How long is a typical new house on the market before it is sold?

 

A: Most new houses are under contract before completion with title transferred shortly after completion.  In fact, a majority of new houses have signed contracts before construction begins. For homes that are still unsold at completion, Census Bureau publishes median months for sale since completion (go to the “New Houses Sold and For Sale, by Stage of Construction).

 

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Q: Which states are in the four census regions and nine census divisions?

A: Both a map and list of states in each region and division can be found at this Census.gov (PDF).

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Q: What makes up my (or any) Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)?

 

A: The Office of Management and Budget publishes the official definition of each MSA (PDF). There is also a PDF file with a map of the United States showing each MSA. Other U.S. maps can also be found on the Census Bureau's site.

 

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Q: What is housing’s contribution on national economy?

 

A: Housing affects both the national and local economy. New residential construction accounts for 5 to 6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). The shelter and other services provided by housing are part of personal consumption and represent more than 10 percent of GDP. NAHB has a detailed description of housing’s economic impact.

 

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Q: How many companies (establishments) build homes in the United States?

 

A: According to the Census Bureau's 2002 Economic Census (which is conducted every five years), there were 88,905 residential construction building establishments. Of these, 26,046 were "New Housing Operative Builders" (they acquire land, building and selling houses on their own land). Of the "non-operative builders" (whom we call "custom builders" - builders who build housing under contract for someone else who owns the land), 58,488 are in "new single-family housing construction", and 4,370 in "new multifamily housing construction". Including establishments that are Residential Remodelers raises the total number of firms to 171,655. 

 

Another source is the Census Bureau’s 2005 County Business Patterns report. It indicates that there were 200,826 establishments involved in Residential Building Construction, which includes Residential Remodelers.

 

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Q: What is Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR)?

 

A: Seasonal adjustment is the process of estimating and removing seasonal effects from series such as housing starts or sales to allow examination of underlying trends and business cycles.  Annual rates indicate the annual total that could be expected if the month or quarter had its typical share of the year.

  • Seasonal adjustment does not account for abnormal weather conditions, only for “normal” seasonal variation occurring because of typical weather conditions, relationship to the school year, number of days in the month, etc...
  • Except for the data on existing home sales, the seasonally-adjusted construction data include an adjustment for the days of the week that occur in the month.  Thus, if there are 5 Saturdays in a month, and Saturday is typically a day when more activity (such as new home sales) occurs, then the annual rate is adjusted downward.
  • The seasonal adjustment factors are based on moving averages over about five years, so that a trend towards more (or less) activity in a particular month of the year will gradually be reflected in the seasonal factor for that month.
  • The average of the monthly or quarterly seasonally-adjusted annual rates for a year will not precisely match the annual total.
  • The complex program that calculates seasonal factors automatically gives reduced weight to extreme values in the recent past.

Visit the U.S. Census Bureau's website for more information on the U.S. Census Bureau’s seasonal adjustment process.

 

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Q: In the NAHB Economic and Housing Executive-Level Forecast, what does the “% Change AR” mean?

 

A: The term “% Change AR” means “percentage change at an annual rate”. It answers the question, “If the percentage change for total housing starts between two consecutive quarters were to persist for an entire year, what would the annual percentage rate of change be?” This is roughly equivalent to taking the quarterly rate of change and multiplying by 4. For example, assume total housing starts were 1,965 in fourth quarter 2004 and 2,069 thousand in first quarter of 2005(rounded to the nearest thousand).  The quarterly percentage change for these numbers is 5.29%. Multiplying by 4 gives you 21.17%.  However, to be completely accurate, quarterly compounding must be taken into account (and is the method used to calculate the numbers reported in our tables). Thus, in this case, the annualized rate of change is 22.91% rather than 21.17%. For this example we rounded housing starts to the nearest thousand. When we do the calculation, we use unrounded numbers. Hence, the reported compounded percentage rate of change for the first quarter of 2005 is 22.7%, not the 22.9% just calculated. Note that you cannot average the various quarterly percentage changes at an annual rate for the year to get the annual percentage rate of change. The 2005 annual percentage rate of change is 6.3%, NOT the 5.4% derived from averaging 2005 quarterly percentage changes at an annual rate (22.7%, -1.0%, 7.4%, and -7.6%).

 

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Q: What is the NAHB-Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI)?

 

A: The NAHB-Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) is based on a monthly survey of NAHB members designed to take the pulse of the housing industry, especially the single-family industry. The survey asks respondents to rate general economic and housing market conditions. For more details, visit nahb.org/HMI.

 

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Q: What is the NAHB-Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI)?

 

A: The NAHB-Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI) for a given area is defined as the share of homes sold in that area that would have been affordable to a family earning the local median income based on standard mortgage underwriting criteria. Therefore, there are really two major components - income and housing cost. For more details, visit nahb.org/HOI. 

  

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Q: What is the Remodeling Market Index (RMI)?

 

A: NAHB’s Remodeling Market Index (RMI) is the only measure of remodeling based on surveys of producers, which is becoming a standard for the industry. For more details, visit nahb.org/RMI.

 

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OTHER HOUSING RELATED INFORMATION

 

Q: What is the cost of building a house?

 

A: In general, about half of the selling price of a home is the on-site cost of labor and materials. Of that, about 2/3 of the "hard" costs (i.e., 1/3 of the selling price) is the cost of materials, and 1/3 of the hard costs (1/6 of the selling price) is on-site construction labor, most of which is employed by subs rather than the builder. There is also additional non-construction labor such as sales workers, office staff, etc...

 

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Q: Where can we find current prices of lumber?

 

A: The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) each week publishes the Framing Lumber Prices from Random Lengths and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Futures Price. For current and historic lumber prices visit 

 

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Q: Where can we find data on the current sale prices of existing homes?

 

A: The National Association of REALTORS® has a research section on their website. The reports include economic and housing data, national and local forecasting, and existing home sales. NAHB provides NAR national existing home prices and HousingEconomics subscribers have access to additional price data.

 

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Q: Where can we find data for the new housing units? We are specifically looking for historic home sale volume and prices.

 

A: The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) provides a wide variety of Economic and Housing Data reports and information including home sales and prices. To find information on home sale volume and prices visit the Home Sales and Prices page.

 

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Q: Where else can we find statistics on new construction activity? We are especially interested in shipments of new manufactured homes.

 

A: The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development maintains a research website called HUD-User. This website provides access to pertinent information, such as research reports and periodicals covering housing in the United States. To find information on shipments of new manufactured homes, view HUD's quarterly periodical U.S. Housing Market Conditions. This periodical also contains data on housing permits, starts, completions, and homeownership rates.  

 

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Q: Where can I find the average price of a kitchen remodel project and the impact the project has on the value of the home?

 

A: Remodeling Online, the online version of Remodeling Magazine, has a section on Cost vs. Value. This section includes the average price of kitchen remodeling projects and the real estate value of the remodeling project for 35 of the United States major metropolitan areas.

 

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Q: We are a mid-sized custom homebuilder and want to know the salary range for superintendents. Where can we find wage information for construction professionals?

 

A: The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) publishes a book The Cost of Doing Business Study that contains business statistics such as financial ratios, profit margins, and salary ranges for officers, managers and superintendents for builders of various sizes including the mid-sized custom homebuilder. This book is based upon surveys conducted with builders across the United States and can be found on in the Business Management section of BuilderBooks.com. For additional information about this book and other financial books for builders visit the NAHB's online bookstore, BuilderBooks.com.

 

 

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Q: Where can I find additional links/information to monitor the housing market?

 

A: The following are links to useful information from government agencies and NAHB that will enable you to monitor the housing market.

 

To access the latest information available, simply click the links.

 

Government Agencies and private organizations providing useful housing information:

 

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For more information about this item, please contact Lay Bragg at 800-368-5242 x8270 or via email at lbragg@nahb.org.


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