Households Priced-Out by Higher House Prices and Interest Rates

The material in this section shows the number of U.S. households potentially affected when house prices or interest rates change.
 
The first item is a one-page document that shows approximately 246,000 U.S. households priced out of the market for a median-priced new home when the price of the home is increased by $1,000. View the number of households priced out by a $1,000 price increase.

 

The second item is a longer article that explains the methodology used to generate the "priced-out" numbers, so it can serve as a background document for any of the material in this section. Included in the article is a table showing individual "priced-out" effects for more than 300 metro areas. View the “priced-out” article with metro area detail.

 

The third item is a housing affordability pyramid generated from "priced-out" calculations. The pyramid shows that, as the price of a home goes up, there are fewer and fewer households in each tier who are able to afford it. View the introduction to the affordability pyramid. | View the affordability pyramid.
 
Prospective home buyers are also adversely affected when interest rates rise. The fourth item shows that approximately 1.1 million U.S. households are priced out of the market for a median-priced new home by a quarter point increase in the rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. View the number of households priced-out by interest rate increases.

 

The fifth item is a one-page document showing that compared to February 2007 approximately 17 million additional U.S. households can now afford a median-priced new home as a result of new home prices falling by almost $50,000 and effective mortgage rates declining by more than 1.1 percent. View the number of households priced in by falling home prices and lower mortgage rates from February 2007 to February 2009.
 
The sixth item provides a brief explanation of how the above numbers were generated. View the explanation of the priced-out methodology.

 

A related issue is the difference between builder costs and the final price of a new home.  When construction-related fees are imposed, the cost will typically be marked up before it is passed onto the buyer, as other builder costs, such as financing and broker commissions, also rise. The sixth item shows NAHB’s estimate that a fee imposed at the beginning of the development process will normally be passed on to the buyer with approximately a 22 percent mark-up. View NAHB’s mark-up estimate for a fee imposed at the start of development.

For more information about this item, please contact Paul Emrath at 800-368-5242 x8449 or via e-mail at pemrath@nahb.org.


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